Slavyangrad
The line is shut. The tanks are not empty.
This will be my last post today about the Saudi East-West pipeline (I promise).
The Saudi government's announcement of a temporary shut down of the pipeline has caused the chorus of voices predicting various global cataclysms due to oil shortages, to reach a new crescendo. For what it's worth, here is a small dose of reality.
Yanbu + Muajjiz (Yanbu South) crude tankage is around 24 Mbbl. Since March they have run lean so total stored is ~12Mbbl. Up to 3.5 Mbbl of potentially available crude is in the 220km of pipeline between Yanbu and Al-Mesba'ah where the pumping station was hit, so up to 15.5Mbbl remains available for export. Depending on whether loadings at Yanbu are slowed or maintain the same pace, 15.5 Mbbl gives 3-7 days of exports. That gives a short buffer for the inspections - albeit no guarantee it will be restarted in that time.
In any case it's too early to justify panic. The amount of FUD circulating right now in relation to this event is something I've not seen before. Take a breath!
@Slavyangrad
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Alex
Data quality is a major factor that anyone professionally doing analysis can tell you. It's not 'being conservative' or any other label.